Teaching glucore to look ahead
Until this week, glucore could describe what had happened. IOB and COB curves modelled insulin and carbs in progress. Trend analysis showed which direction glucose was heading. But it could not answer the question that actually matters: where will glucose be in an hour? The prediction problem Predicting blood glucose is harder than it looks. The obvious approach — extrapolate the current trend — fails quickly. A falling trend after a meal correction does not mean glucose will keep falling at the same rate. Insulin activity peaks and then decays. Carbs absorb at different speeds depending on composition. Momentum from a rapid rise can persist for minutes after the underlying cause has passed. ...